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Wednesday, October 29, 2008

States now failing. Well, I told you so....

Now the other shoe is dropping. Enjoy.

WASHINGTON — Saying that the federal government needed to help states avoid further financial turmoil, Gov. David A. Paterson asked Wednesday that Congress immediately provide state governments with a rescue package similar to the one it approved for the banking industry.

Gov. David A. Paterson of New York, with Gov. Mark Sanford of South Carolina, at a Congressional hearing in Washington on Wednesday.

Appearing before the House Ways and Means Committee, Mr. Paterson said that New York was already moving to address a budget deficit that he has estimated at $47 billion over the next three and a half years, but that it wouldnot be enough.

“The great states of this country right now are facing huge deficits without the resources to affect it,” the governor said.

The hearing, called by the committee chairman, Representative Charles B. Rangel, also included Gov. Mark Sanford of South Carolina, local officials and union officials. The officials advocate that Congress provide more direct assistance to cities and states as they deal with the effects of the banking industry turmoil.

“We are cutting all we can,” Mr. Paterson told the committee. “Therefore, we feel that targeted, sensible actions by the federal government will provide relief for us now.”

Mr. Rangel praised Mr. Paterson, a longtime friend, for his leadership on fiscal issues.

Mr. Paterson’s appearance on Capitol Hill came a day after he called on state lawmakers to put forward ideas on how to reduce the state budget in preparation for a special legislative session he has called for Nov. 18.

In written testimony he submitted to the committee, Mr. Paterson was even more pointed, criticizing the federal government for not preventing the current economic upheaval and for its lack of attention to the states.

“I firmly believe that if it took only two weeks for the federal government to find $700 billion to bail out Wall Street and bank executives,” he said, “then we ought to be able to find a fraction of that amount to help preserve essential services at the state level.”

He added, “The results of federal inaction could be devastating in every corner of our nation.”

In the written testimony, Mr. Paterson repeatedly invoked the economic damage resulting from the Sept. 11 attacks, saying that the threat to New York’s economy was in many ways far more severe now than it was then.

He said New York and other states were on the verge of finding themselves unable to provide essential social services like unemployment benefits and food stamps and needed federal assistance.

“Just like the financial services industry, we need a partner in the federal government in order to help stave off an impending calamity.”

Mr. Paterson said Congress could help bring relief to the states by increasing spending on food stamps, increasing block grants to states and providing federal dollars to repair roads, bridges and water treatment facilities.

Saturday, October 25, 2008

OPEC Idiots!


My God. Check out this headline today. People of the USA, stand up now and shut this idiots down! Walk for God's sake to the grocery store or anything under a mile and you will help shut OPEC down for good!

OPEC Says It Will Cut Oil Output

VIENNA — Stung by what it called “a dramatic collapse” in crude prices, the OPEC cartel said on Friday that it would reduce output by a steeper-than-expected 1.5 million barrels a day. But that action failed to brake the price decline, and oil dropped 5 percent more by the end of the day.

The oil cartel swiftly agreed to the cut in an emergency meeting at its headquarters here, and its president suggested afterward that still more production cuts were coming as OPEC struggled to get ahead of an economic slowdown so severe it could leave the world awash in oil.

The stunning decline of oil prices in recent weeks has left oil-exporting countries fearful that they will have to cut government budgets, including the popular social programs that cement many leaders’ hold on power.

Oil dropped to $64.15 a barrel on Friday, from a high close of $145.29 on July 3, a 56 percent decline in 16 weeks and one of the steepest in the oil markets.

If prices keep falling, OPEC’s president, Chakib Khelil, said the cartel would “definitely” reduce its production again in coming months, either when it meets in Algeria in December, or sooner.

Saturday, October 11, 2008

The Disposition Effect...


..what psychologists call the inability to confront financial losses.Thanks to Nanci, for this one.

I find it absolutely amazing that we as a nation still can't look at this market and realize it is a time for change in how our banks and markets operate and function. The G7 is meeting this weekend to solve our crisis. Be prepared for more pain.....Talks of another economic stimulus package are arising again. Did you see how that last stimulus package worked out for us?

This mess we are in is really just in it's infancy. Our capital markets are at historic lows and going lower. The dollar can't hold up to the yen or hell even the peso. Our elected public officials are so over their heads right now and corporate greed is still running ramped. Will it stop? Maybe...

Today we are a nation having to take a hard look at ourselves in the mirror. Do I like what I see? I do, but it really depends on which angle I am looking at in the mirror. On the bad side angle of the mirror I see a nation that is searching for guidance and direction. I speak to small and large investors daily and the common denominator of our conversations are that they don't know what to do with their investments. They are truly in in the grip of fear. They are truly acting out the the disposition effect. I also continue to see a federal government that is nationalizing banks and businesses, passing out stimulus packages and slowly turning our nation towards a socialist society.

On the good angle side of the mirror I see a nation that has the best and brightest minds. I see a nation that makes it happen. I see a strong nation. I see a nation that needs a kick in the ass. I see a nation that will will recover, learn from this colossal mistake and move forward. But all of this will come at a price. America will regain their confidence!

That price of our recovery will be painful. We will see a loss of jobs, small and big businesses and paper wealth will evaporate. Spending will change for the consumer and wealth will have to be rebuilt. Are these losses a bad thing? Not really. We will learn a valuable lesson from these failures. A new generation will be able to realize that we have to live within our means. We will have to make adjustments. We will have to do without and be happy.

A new market is being made now. This is truly historic for all of us. Embrace the change.

Friday, October 3, 2008

The Bailout.



Well it is getting close to the hour of the bailout. Will it happen? Most likely yes. Will it matter? In my humble opinion it will not. The damage has been done.

For those of you who follow me you know my greatest fear is that the average US citizen has zero savings. Most, in fact, about 96% of the US can't make it a week without a paycheck. How will this bailout help them. It won't.

Once and only if the few banks that will be around can get back to lending, the lending requirements will be like climbing Mt. Everest. Think about this for a moment. The average US consumer credit score is between 690 to 720. Banks were charging huge interest rates to these consumers when they could lend. What do you think it will be like when they start lending again? The average consumer will not qualify for a loan. This will soon be a painful wake up call for America.

To compound this problem the consumers who do have credit are now being notified that their credit lines are closed and until they can pay what they owe they have no available credit. So what is the consumer to do? No credit and no savings makes for a messy problem. Food, gas, heat, shelter all cost money.

The capital market has a unique ability to flush out bad planning really quickly. The US has been in a bad planning mode for sometime now. The warning bell rang 13 months ago and we ignored the ominous signs that the financial markets were in trouble. Readers this is bad. Very bad.

So now what. My predictions:

  • Bailout goes through, barely
  • FDIC limit raised to $250k and why? Who has $250k in cash laying around......
  • Banks either gobble each other up or we see massive bank failures
  • Mark to market kills accrued value. Assets will be significantly reduced across the board
  • The treasury lines and discount window will not be enough to tie banks over or cover "toxic" debt
  • Financial markets will freeze up again in about 25 days. Enough time to attempt to flush "toxic" bad debt
  • Short selling banned for another 30 days
  • More panic sell off by the average 401k holder and small time investor
  • DOW 7300
  • Money Markets hit .96 cents for $1. Money Markets will be a thing of the past very soon
  • Hedge Funds will collapse and then the fun really starts.....
  • Once market goes into free fall we will see massive layoff's
  • Layoff's will have to be funded by State Unemployment
  • States will now rush to Federal Government for bridge loans to stabilize their businesses
  • Federal Government will have no money to lend
  • Next, study the history of October 29th, 1929
Our leaders failed the US citizen. But we really failed ourselves by not taking responsibility and live within our means. Good luck.