iPhone Battery and Apple's concern....

OK tonight I am in Tampa and went into the Apple store in the Tampa International Mall. First let me tell you the service is unreal, as always.

Anyway I went in to talk about how a user can use his/her iPhone when their company uses Exchange (Microsoft) for the email client server. To my great surprise you can set up the iPhone to work with your Exchange webmail client. Worst case you can forward your Exchange mail to you Google or other personal email account.

While I was talking with the Apple expert a crowd began to gather to watch us set up the iPhone. Ya'll there had to be 15 people standing around to watch. I glanced over the rest of the store and it was packed (on a Monday night). Needless to say, my theory on Apple attracting users of all ages in the store is spot on....

Now here is the good part. I asked the expert about the battery and he really did not want to talk about how the battery was replaced. I was testing him and asking him if the battery can be switched out and he said he was not sure and needed to check. After he came back to me with an answer he said Apple had options on how to replace the battery. I asked for them and he said he was not to sure. I could tell he was uncomfortable with the answer he gave me.

My concern is that Apple may be setting themselves up for a loss of business professionals using the phone. Why? I can't go a minute without my phone. From what I understand according to the Apple Pro's is that you will have to send in the iPhone for a week to have the battery replaced. But you can get a loner iPhone for $29.99. Sorry, what??? Apple you want me to send in my $600 dollar phone to replace the battery (for a cost of course) and pay for a loner. It ain't gonna work Mr. Jobs. Oh by the way this is for each year you have the iPhone.

Apple needs to reevaluate this practice for their business clients real quick. This could be revenue dent to them if they can't cater to the business client. But be sure, every dang kid who can talk Mom and Dad into an iPhone will have one! Jobs please build in a model for the business users of the iPhone.

As for the drop today in the Apple (APPL) stock, not to worry. Look for more upgrades this week. Hell the Money Mangers have no other place to place all that cash they have on the sidelines!

Current Market & Apple (APPL) Crystal Ball.

Well it is a rainy Saturday in Atlanta today. God knows we need the rain. Speaking of bad weather did you see the market last week? Nice correction, we hope. (Apple comments are at bottom of post).

Strange to see that the market is acting so "crazy". Company earnings have been very good, GDP was better then expected and cash is still on the sideline. Then there is this one concern of subprime lending and the effects subprime lending will have on the overall market.

As you know I am not a trained economist but I gotta believe that the banks and brokerage firms already baked these "losses" into their business plans years ago. I love how everyone is so surprised that subprime lending is backfiring and people are defaulting on their loans.

This gets me fired up to talk about credit in America. Why was is that our grandparents used to pray each night at dinner that "May we owe no man debt"? What the heck happened to being proud to have no debt and buy the things you can afford? Hang with me I do have a point.....

The way I see it is the banks and brokerage firms have baked these subprime losses right into their business plans. And I got to bet they made more money then they are losing. So everyone is in a panic mode that the subprime issues will kill our market. They will not. Actually I see this a good time to pick up many brokerage and bank stocks. I like GS, GHL,LEH & MS. I think these stocks are a steal right now.

As for Apple, wow a drop of $2.50 in a panic market. It was more troubling to watch Apple (APPL) be up with one hour left in the trading day and then POW, Apple drops $2.50. My thoughts are that people are taking profits. If you got in at $70 like I did it might be tempting to take those profits. I think this is a huge mistake. I see Apple going up another 30 points with ease.

Apple investors stay the fricking course! Look, they did not count ANY iPhone or AT&T subscription earnings on the last call. They plan to sell at least 1 million iPhones buy end of next quarter and that number will be blown away. Let's say more like 2 million plus phones. The iPod will not get eaten alive buy the iPhone for sometime to come. People will still continue to but the iPod as always. What I continue to stress is the iTunes revenue!!! Ya'll this is the secret sauce of Apple. The iTunes number continues to grow like a weed in the summer time. Pay attention to it.

Not to mention we have Apple T.V. taking off and new R&D products about to hit the market. Think Leopard here. Also, did you listen to the conference call this past week? Did you hear how Apple is not divulging their revenue numbers from their iPhone partners like YouTube, Google, etc..... Wanna bet it will be huge? I am betting on the huge side.

Apple back to school is in full force now and I think the marketing is pure genius! Think about it... Capturing the youth of America is outstanding. Which means more Apple adoption. Keep an eye on the Apple adoption rate by the big corporations too. Like Apple says the products just work. Try that statement with Vista..... Stay the course Apple investors..... Shorts are getting killed!

Apple (APPL) Hits! Analysts Go Nutt's and I am Happy!

Well, well, well. Seems our good friend Mr. Jobs continues to mystify and baffle us earthly mortals with his own other world knowledge and creativity. Apple announces yesterday and crushes the street estimates. (No real surprise here, these Apple analysts who called for an upgrade to the stock 3 days before earnings are real sharp cookies. Did you listen to the conference call? Listen to the "expert" from Merrill Lynch and GS and the real earth shattering questions they ask Apple management). God I can't wait to get a job offer from one of the big investment firms.

Anyway, I love how Apple did not count one red cent from the sale of the iPhones and activations from AT&T. I also kept getting the giggles when Apple management said they should sale at least 1 million iPhones in the first full quarter of iPhone sales. 1 million? To funny.... Wanna bet me Merrill Lynch that Apple kills this number? And do you wanna bet the subscription dollar numbers will be huge? I am stating now that Apple will kill that 1 million iPhone number (as long as Jobs has material) and subscription dollars will be 20% better then predicted by the analysts.

So what happens now with Apple? The Mac's are gaining market share like crazy! Go to an Apple store and you feel like your in another world. By the way one request to Jobs for the Apple store, how about providing us beer and wine while we play like kids on all your cool gadgets? I bet I would by more product will a slight buzz going. Ever get the idea that Apple copies a lot of what Sir Richard Branson has done with Virgin? Apple stores, web sites, products, people, etc... are all good looking, intelligent and sharp as heck. I love it.

The iPhone and iPod will continue to grow like a weed and continue to keep an eye on that little iTunes revenue number. That little number continues to grow and grow... Last, let's not ever forget the new release of Leopard coming out. Who the heck knows what this will do to Vista. This could be the death blow to Microsoft and their "younger target market". By the way has anyone heard a kid say I must have a Vista operating system recently? Or "daddy I must have a Zune!"?

My hats off to Jobs and his management team. I know for sure one day they will take off their human costumes and show us what they really look like and what planet or other world they are really from. Ever see that movie Cocoon?

AAPL Big Day Today.

Well yesterday was a wild ride for Apple. AT&T comes out and says they are not selling or better yet activating that many iPhones. To funny. Seems that AT&T also stated that the iPhone will be one of their best money makers?? Go figure. I love it when people talk out of both sides of their mouth.

So here is what I think will happen at earnings call today at 4:00 p.m. e.s.t. Look for Jobs to state the iPhone is a huge success. Jobs will talk about backorders for the iPhone. Look for Jobs to talk about the huge demand for the new Macs. Yes this will be a nice topic that Jobs will focus on. One thing to watch out for on the call is the iTunes revenue. This could be a huge surprise to all.

The chat boards are lit up today with Jobs announcing a stock split. I am starting to think this could happen. One good poster brought up how RIMM split and the effect it had on the RIMM stock. I am starting to think we could have a slight chance at a split. If this happens the price of Apple will hit the roof. Analysts are all coming out today stating the stock is going to make a run. This scares me some.

One thing to focus on today is what Jobs thinks will happen with the back to school and holiday season coming up. Will Apple have enough product to meet demand? This could be a surprise to all if Jobs thinks the backorders will grow. Look for good earning today with a run of the stock to the $150 range in after hours trading. Money managers have a ton on money to spend and I think we will see some huge buying late this afternoon.

Good luck!

AAPL (Apple). Analysts Freaking Out.....

OK, here is some comedy for our Monday. The analysts (guys and gals who have to make or hype everything to get clients to buy or sell stocks) are in major turmoil right now.

Six months ago analysts were calling for Apple's target price to be $98.00. Fast forward to today. Now they are calling for $130, $140, $200, $220 and even higher. Well let me be the first to say they have no clue where Apple is heading. Why? Their models are not able to factor in "I am a teenager and must have this product or I will cry for a month and drive Mom and Dad crazy". Or the "I gotta be on the cutting edge and have the best products". This latter comment is also known as the cool factor. So here are some comical bites for your Monday from our friends the Apple analysts:

After surging for the past several weeks, shares of iPhone maker Apple Inc. could experience some short-term volatility around the company's fiscal third quarter earnings report this Wednesday, warns one Wall Street analyst. From the Apple insider. Really? This is the best they can say?

"We believe buy-side investors have more or less figured over the past 18 months that Apple sell-side estimates tend to be overzealous and sometimes outright irrational," American Technology Research analyst Shaw Wu wrote in note to clients Monday. "Regardless, we advise investors to take advantage should Apple shares pull back on short-term concerns." Wu I will bet a paycheck that you have never gone to an Apple store or a local coffee shop.....

"For iPhone, we anticipate a small contribution as only two days of sales were likely recognized in the quarter coupled with Apple's use of subscription accounting," he wrote. "We are modeling a conservative 250,000 units though we would like to note that this is at a much faster rate than Apple's previous big hit iPod nano, which sold 59,000 units per day." What? I must be going crazy. Did they also say the iPod would be a flop?

Once again, the American Technology Research analyst is expecting Apple to model guidance conservatively for the current September quarter, likely citing its distributed iPhone accounting and the "lower margin" back-to-school season. Now I have read it all. Do you think Apple cares about lower margins with a waiting list for iPhones and the new Macs??????

"We are modeling $5.8 billion and $0.77 versus consensus of $6.05 billion and $0.83," he told clients. Wu reiterated his Buy rating on Apple shares with a $165 price target. Wu your model builder is broken and your going to miss..... Big surprise here..

Wu I guess you missed this announcement:

07.23.07, 11:31 AM ET AFX News Limited - FRANKFURT (Thomson Financial) - Apple Inc plans to sell its iPhone handheld device in Arcandor AG's Karstadt department stores from this autumn, Wirtschafts Woche reported, citing a spokesman for Karstadt.

Folks do me a favor, don't listen to the analysts community. Here is my "model" for Apple. Listen to Apples sales. Listen to Apples backlog and waiting list for products. Listen to the blogs. Listen to your iPod! This is what causes good earnings and stock prices to go up.

Apple Spilt?

Well there is a lot of talk of an Apple split coming on July 25th, 2007. I tend to think we will not see a split. Historically looking back at the Apple splits, one can see the split trend in line with what I call "market hype". What I mean here is that Apple tended to follow the other tech stocks when they took off (see this link for a full split review http://finance.google.com/finance?q=aapl).

Times have changed for Apple. Now Apple is the leader in the market for "cool gadgets" and slowly attracting the commercial IT market. Lot's of major corporations are accepting Apple technology as their IT platform. Who would have ever thought this could happen? Also, we can't forget how Apple has attracted the younger minds of the world and now these younger minds are making decisions on what technology is best for themselves, their family and the companies that they work for. Think Starbucks Coffee here.

Have you been in a Starbucks on the weekend yet? The average age of the clients is maybe 12 or 13 years old. Lifelong customers now for Starbucks.....Go into a Apple store sometime. The age of the Apple clients will shock you too....

Can you compare Apple to coffee or caffeine? Yep. iPod, iPhone, new Mac's, iTV and who knows what else Apple has in the R&D lab this month..... and iPen maybe? How cool would that be? A pen that can write, take pictures, allow you to listen to music.... Apple is addicting and socially cool. Do you know anyone who does not have an iPod? Next year I will ask you do you know anyone who does not have an iPhone.

Anyway, I really think Apple now controls the "cool gadget" space and will continue to dominate and shock the market for years to come with new technology and products. Why do they need to split? Money managers have plenty of cash on hand to buy this stock at $220 or more. Uh oh! I just let out my price target for Apple by the end of the year......

Money managers don't bet on a split. Bet long... I really feel sorry for the shorts this past couple of weeks on Apple. God those 140 calls must have hurt lot's of good people. Stay long on Apple!

By the way I am still waiting on those job offers from the big brokerage firms. Heck you all read my stuff weekly... Off to the park today! Have a great day.

Apple iPhone. I told you so!

I am now taking job offers from investment firms who want a person who can average about 26% per year. That is year over year. Feel free to contact me for any openings that you all have. For those that targeted the iPhone as a flop or estimated sales for only a few hundred thousand units, I am sure you have openings for me!

My estimate for the iPhone? 3.6 million units by end of summer. Only if they can make that many in time. You all are taking part in history. The iPhone will change the world!