AAPL (Apple). Analysts Freaking Out.....

OK, here is some comedy for our Monday. The analysts (guys and gals who have to make or hype everything to get clients to buy or sell stocks) are in major turmoil right now.

Six months ago analysts were calling for Apple's target price to be $98.00. Fast forward to today. Now they are calling for $130, $140, $200, $220 and even higher. Well let me be the first to say they have no clue where Apple is heading. Why? Their models are not able to factor in "I am a teenager and must have this product or I will cry for a month and drive Mom and Dad crazy". Or the "I gotta be on the cutting edge and have the best products". This latter comment is also known as the cool factor. So here are some comical bites for your Monday from our friends the Apple analysts:

After surging for the past several weeks, shares of iPhone maker Apple Inc. could experience some short-term volatility around the company's fiscal third quarter earnings report this Wednesday, warns one Wall Street analyst. From the Apple insider. Really? This is the best they can say?

"We believe buy-side investors have more or less figured over the past 18 months that Apple sell-side estimates tend to be overzealous and sometimes outright irrational," American Technology Research analyst Shaw Wu wrote in note to clients Monday. "Regardless, we advise investors to take advantage should Apple shares pull back on short-term concerns." Wu I will bet a paycheck that you have never gone to an Apple store or a local coffee shop.....

"For iPhone, we anticipate a small contribution as only two days of sales were likely recognized in the quarter coupled with Apple's use of subscription accounting," he wrote. "We are modeling a conservative 250,000 units though we would like to note that this is at a much faster rate than Apple's previous big hit iPod nano, which sold 59,000 units per day." What? I must be going crazy. Did they also say the iPod would be a flop?

Once again, the American Technology Research analyst is expecting Apple to model guidance conservatively for the current September quarter, likely citing its distributed iPhone accounting and the "lower margin" back-to-school season. Now I have read it all. Do you think Apple cares about lower margins with a waiting list for iPhones and the new Macs??????

"We are modeling $5.8 billion and $0.77 versus consensus of $6.05 billion and $0.83," he told clients. Wu reiterated his Buy rating on Apple shares with a $165 price target. Wu your model builder is broken and your going to miss..... Big surprise here..

Wu I guess you missed this announcement:

07.23.07, 11:31 AM ET AFX News Limited - FRANKFURT (Thomson Financial) - Apple Inc plans to sell its iPhone handheld device in Arcandor AG's Karstadt department stores from this autumn, Wirtschafts Woche reported, citing a spokesman for Karstadt.

Folks do me a favor, don't listen to the analysts community. Here is my "model" for Apple. Listen to Apples sales. Listen to Apples backlog and waiting list for products. Listen to the blogs. Listen to your iPod! This is what causes good earnings and stock prices to go up.