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Sunday, November 7, 2010

A $900 Billion Shit Sandwhich for the United States Taxpayers...

As I sit outside in lovely Atlanta I have a cold streak running down my spine. Our Federal Reserve has decided and not unanimously to bail out our economy once again with a repurchase of $900 billion of treasuries. Wow, ain't that nice. So who will benefit from this move?

It is pretty easy to see that this is just yet another shame move by our government to bail out the "to big to fail" banks. Let's start with the easy banks who will benefit first, Bank of America, JP Morgan Chase and Wells Fargo. Clearly B of A is the leader of the pact with a disastrous balance sheet that really should be called a comic book. B of A has good will write offs of well over $2.8 billion dollars and a stock falling faster than a speeding rocket. B of A is screaming "help again" to the Fed's....And the Fed's have heard the screams for help...Welcome QE2

With the approval of QE2 we now have a stock market on fire (thanks to computer trades) and a dollar sinking like the Titanic. Let's not forget that we are also pissing of the Chinese and Brazil with QE2. More excitment to help with this coming US economic disaster. We have taken the first step on the slippery slope and the next step looks like the creation of an avalanche. The US consumer is tapped out, unemployment is well of 20% and job creation in the US is non existent. So how does this story of QE2 play out?

We will see a bounce in the markets through the end of 2010 on computer trades and institutional trades. We will continue to see dismal dollar investing into 401k's by those that do have jobs due to fear of the markets and not being able to pay rent or mortgage. We will bypass inflation and head straight to deflation and then and only then will the Fed's state they are "out of bullets" and we do what should have been done long ago, let the capital markets work out events on their own....

I am out of the market now going majority cash and some gold. Other than that the rest of this market looks like the making of a huge shit sandwich that we the US tax payers will have to bail out...Good luck...

Tuesday, March 16, 2010

Where you been? They ask....


Hi Folks -

Sorry for the sabbatical. I had a lot of new events happen that took me away from investing. Getting married and honeymooning in Bora Bora is one of the events!

Anyway I am back with lot's of thoughts this month. First, let's look at the financial sector. With the Dodd Bill (http://www.politico.com/blogs/thecrypt/0908/Dodd_bill_much_more_aggressive_than_Treasury_plan.html), banks will be loving life. But it has to be the right banks. My call on this play is that banks like Citi, B of A, Wells Fargo and BB&T will do well. Why? The bill will protect these banks from financial losses in the consumer and commercial real estate market. Special legislation will protect this "institutes" from failure. After all without lending how do you expect jobs to be created? And we need jobs today (http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm).

Unemployment also makes me think about some of the consumer stocks that could be set up to take a beating. First, and I can't believe I am saying this but I see Apple taking a huge hit on the chin over the next few months. I am not sold on the apple iPad (http://www.apple.com/ipad/) at all. I believe that Apple is telegraphing to us that they are running out of great products to support the $223.00 stock price (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=aapl). I think now is the time to short Apple. Sorry Apple...

Another interesting play that I am fully invested in are the following stocks - McDonald's, Yum Brands!, Altria. WalMart, Exxon and Republic Services. Why these stocks you ask? McDonald's and Yum Brands!, good food cheap....Altria, stress of losing that job......WalMart, crappy products sold dirt cheap, Exxon, we still need gas for now and Republic Services, we in the USA no matter how many jobs we lose we still make more trash then any other country in the world.......I have all of these stocks as a strong buy.

I see the USA going through some trouble times. We lost over 9 million jobs and they will not be replaced.....Something has got to give....Good luck out there.