End of 2007. Thank God. Predictions for 2008

Well 2007 is all but over and thank God. Can you fricking believe the Subprime issue and the CDO's? Only in the capitalist economy can you be a CEO of CITI, ML, BS or any of the other rip off firms and burn your clients and employee's and still walk out with millions of dollars.

I have told you all over and over again these investment houses are the biggest ripoff's ever created. Hell their own analysts read my blogs all the time and steal thoughts that I have. Ain't that right the house of ML? Caught you two times.

Anyway I will be coming out with how well I did for 2007. Looks like I beat the top traders again. I am still waiting on a job offer from Bear and Goldie. Right now let's look at 2008.

Predictions:

Defense Stocks will be the way to go again. I will post my favorites in January.

Energy - This will be huge for 2008. We can expect to see India come on line and China burning up as much oil as possible. The USA still has no clue how bad off we are and continue to burn fuel like it will never run out. I hope the USA likes $4 dollar per gallon gas soon. Buy energy now.

Gold - Say goodbye to the highs of $800 and say hello to $900 to $1200 per ounce. Buy it now.

Consumer Spending - Well your house is now worth 20% less, you have a mortgage that is resetting, you got a 3% raise and your healthcare cost just went up. You credit cards are maxed to the hills, you can't claim bankruptcy and your bills are due. Consumer spending will be crap for 2008.

Inflation - Up. How much? Depends on what the Fed's do. The M1 rate is a fricking comic book so predicting this is a bear. My guess is that we jump from 4.31% (todays rate) to 6%. Get ready to move your cash to CD's.

Banking - This will be fun to watch. I am guessing that we will see a few major banks fold and have to be purchased by other big banks to bail them out. Of course the Fed's will be behind this move. First to go? Countrywide.

Fed Fund Rates? Cut again by 25 points in January. Will have to cut again right after that. We should see a 50 point cut by March.

GDP - Negative growth Q1 and Q2. Up last quarter of year.

2008 Election - Democrats win and win big. Hail to the woman......

Super Bowl Champs - Patriots of course!

Until January, stay warm!

So I am in a bar having a Guinness beer last week.....

And I happen to meet an expert on bio-tech companies. So we begin to have a great conversation over the economy and what will happen with the US. We both agree that we are in for some real trouble. But that is another blog....

Anyway, let me get back to the bio-tech. So we start to have a robust conversation about DNA companies. I am fascinated by DNA testing. As we talk and drink my new friend begins to tell me about companies that will or will not be players. One of the companies that he told me about is NASDAQ:GENE.

So I did some digging and the stock looks pretty good. They just got a new CEO and they are selling some licenses to some pretty well known companies. I thought I would share this with my blog community and see what you all think about GENE.

Hit me back with your thoughts. Oh by the way how you all liking your Apples? Go baby go!

I am now Scared! Really Scared!

This morning Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson goes on TV and states, "We are going to work through this problem just fine," Paulson said. He urged patience as investors reassess their appetite for risk, saying there isn't a "quick solution" to the matter. "These things take a while to play out," the secretary said. This is pure bull crap! We are in trouble.

Then we get this this morning, "Foreclosure filings rose 9 percent from June to July and surged 93 percent over the same period last year, with Georgia, Nevada and Michigan accounting for the highest foreclosure rates nationwide, a research firm said Tuesday".

In all, 179,599 foreclosure filings were reported during July, up from 92,845 in the year-ago month, according to Irvine-based RealtyTrac Inc. A total of 164,644 foreclosure filings were reported in June.

"While 43 states experienced year-over-year increases in foreclosure activity, just five states — California, Florida, Michigan, Ohio and Georgia — accounted for more than half of the nation's total foreclosure filings," said RealtyTrac Chief Executive James J. Saccacio.

Oh Snap! And let's not forget these little tidbits:

• Countrywide Financial Corp., the nation's largest mortgage lender, said Monday it has eliminated about 500 jobs as it tries to ride out problems from a credit crunch that has rocked the home loan industry.

• In yet another casualty of the fallout in the mortgage industry, the Capital One Financial Corp. said on Monday that it would stop making residential mortgages and close GreenPoint Mortgage, its wholesale mortgage banking unit. They will lay off 1,900.

• HomeBanc, in a statement on its Web site, said it is unable to borrow on its credit facilities and was unable to meet its mortgage loan funding obligations as of Monday. HomeBanc is closed. Countrywide bought the debt and hired the employees. Wait a minute! Isn't Countywide laying off?
  

• After weeks of troubling news and near-silence from official spokesmen, American Home Mortgage Investment Corp. announced Thursday night that it would shutter most of its operations and lay off more than 6,250 workers, including almost all of its 1,460-person Melville staff.

Ya'll think we are OK? What about those safe Money Market Funds? Read on my friends:

• From the online Wall Street Journal: Shares were already lower, but selling in all three indexes picked up after CNBC reported that Sentinel Management Group, a money market fund manager, had asked to halt investor redemption's, suggesting its investors were in a "panic."Sentinel's action "was a pretty drastic thing," said Stephen Carl, head trader at Williams Capital. The news stirred up the fears about the spreading impact of trouble in the credit markets and alternative investments that have dogged Wall Street for weeks. "It's just more of the same," Mr. Carl said.

• Today alone, the 3-month T-bill rate was down by over one full percentage point before recovering a bit.

• The 1-month T-bill rate has plunged from 4.52% last Tuesday to as low as 1.25% today. That's not a typo! It was actually down by more than THREE full percentage points in just four trading days!

Do you think we are safe in our MMF's? How about Vanguard or Fidelity's MMF's?

Sorry ya'll I am scared. If you have been following my post I have stated the last thing we need is the Fed's to ride in and save the day. Ya'll the only thing that will fix and save this market is the capital market process. We have to let it ride out. Our banks and credit lenders have made terrible and even criminal mistakes. Many have made millions on this credit scam. We now have to pay the price.

I am terrible worried that we are only at the tip of the iceberg right now. I predict a huge plunge of up to 100 points soon. How soon? We will see a fall out in the next few weeks. We are starting to see the signs today. Have you been watching the Gold market while all of this is going on?

Seems gold is not moving, yet. Why? Well were about to open the bank window to the world with T-bills at a super low yield rate this week. Guess who will be buying? Yes our friends the Chinese. God this scares me even more. The Chinese are buying up our debt at almost any rate we give them. This is not a good sign for the US market. Debt is going to kill us and it will be a slow painful death of the consumer market. After the sell of the T-bills this week watch the gold market. When you see gold starting to jump $3 to $4 dollars up get ready for the market fall.

What do you and I do in this market? If your long like me just ride it out and watch those MMF's very closely. Are there any good buys right now? I think Starbucks is looking good. Apple looks good but let's see how much of a pullback we get this week.

Stay the course!

Am I Scared? Should I Be? What happens next? Apple (APPL)?

Sorry but this blog will be a bit tart today. Follow me for the Apple stuff at the bottom.

I am really fricking tired of Jim Cramer and his sissy crew of "experts" stating that the market is going to explode, the world will come to and end and we will all be poor. And my very fricking favorite is the "experts" are all begging the Fed to come in and save the financial markets. Did you all catch that fool Jim Cramer fricking the hell out last week? See it here. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rOVXh4xM-Ww. I used to like him but now I realize he is a dirt bag like the others. Jim Cramer you should be ashamed of yourself as an "expert".

So we have a pullback in the market. Should I be scared? Well no way. Why? I own everything I have and I have no debt. God what a novel concept. Did you all know that when our great, great grandparents came to the USA they said a prayer each night at dinner? That prayer went like this "Dear Lord may we never be indebted to any man". Where have we gone wrong in this society? Why is debt, Paris Hilton and Lindsey Lohan so cool? What is debt? go here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Debt

Is it my fault that the guy down the street from me makes $60k a year and lives in a $600,000.00 home with an interest only loan of 2.2% that resets to 15% next week? Is it my fault that the average United States citizen carries over $22,000 in credit card balances and will never be able to pay them off? Is it my fricking fault that the mortgage companies made bad loans and now they have to pay up? Who in God's name ever said that the Fed had to bail all these people out?

TAKE RESPONSIBILITY NOW FOR YOURSELVES! Nobody and I mean nobody is responsible for you except yourself. You want that new car? Can't buy it for cash? Then get a bike or walk! Do you make $60k per year? Well you can't live in a $600,000 home you ding dong! The very best you can do on a $60k salary is maybe a $240,000 home. Do you want that new plasma TV to watch Jim Cramer on and it cost $2400? Don't have the cash for it? Then too fricking bad. Don't buy it. Debt is the devil and now a lot of people are having to sell their souls.

So how does this pertain to Apple (APPL)? Well it is pretty simple. The hedge fund "experts", mortgage companies and hell the mutual fund world has had the dreaded margin call. Except this time they don't have the money on hand. So what do you do if you are one of these retards? Sell you liquid shares. What are liquid shares? Apple, Google, etc.. are liquid shares. Any idiot knows that buying low is the way to go. And you can bet your butt that there is lot's of foreign interest buying up these super cheap stocks now.

So what happens now to Apple? Apple will get hammered for being a liquid stock and we have to suck it up. Would I buy now? I sure would! Will the stock go lower? I think it sure as heck will but I like buying on the dips. So my advice to you normal investors is stay the course with Apple and the other stocks I recommend. Defense stocks look real good now and so does the Vanguard S&P 500 Index fund.

Ignore the cries for help from Cramer and the other "experts'. You all know they are millionaires right? They are just mad the bet's they made are not coming in.

If you are a young person reading this, take responsibility right now for your debt. Don't ever spend more than you make and don't buy crap you can't have for life. Debt ain't worth it. never, ever, ever ,ever!

By the way have you all noticed all the for sale signs going up in the neighborhoods? God I would not want to have to sell in this market.

Apple (APPL) Rockets Down and I am stuck in a Regan National Airport

Well you all did it. When I say you all I mean you Ding Dong Hedge Fund Managers. Yes I am calling you out, come and battle me, Goldman, Morgan and the MoMo's at UBS. You had to do it. Sell your Apple (APPL) shares to cover your butt's for the losses on the hedge funds you made a killing on.

So you true Apple investors, stay the course. See these great money managers and analysts that you all know I hate, have had to close out their positions on profitable shares (APPL) they owned to cover their losses. Yes huge losses. Good job to the hedge fund guru's at Goldman and Morgan and Merrill Lynch. When, in the name of whoever, are you going to offer me a job?

So as we move on in this ride I beg the Apple loyal to stay the course. Why? Wait until you see what Job's has to offer you in the form of video email. Man o man you are going to love it!

As for the analysts of Apple. I am now calling each and every one of you out and too a duel. I will battle you all on the pro's of Apple any day of the week. And I swear, if I ever hear those weak butt questions that you all ask Apple management on the Con call's, I will throw you all under the web bus of pain.

By the way I have decided to name Steve Jobs' as my "Hero". Steve you have won the "Hall Hero" Award! Call me so you can pick it up the next time you are in Atlanta. For those of you all out there keeping track I now have three hero's. My Grandfather, Richard Branson and Steve Jobs'. My Grandfather got three Bronzes Stars and two purple hearts. Man, this makes me feel like a real stud writing this blog.....

Now for the hardcore investors that read my blog. Watch out for the REIT's. Get out while you can. Stick with Apple and the Defense Contractors. You will see a drop in the Defense stocks this week but buy in the dips. Also keep an eye on the the finance stocks this week. AIG looks good but be careful. If we continue the dip don't panic, we are all in this for the long run, right?

Mac (or iMac), iPhone, YouTube and the rest of the world

Hi everyone! Well it has been a couple of weeks since I last wrote. I was recently at the unveiling of the Mac and the new software updates that Jobs put in place. So my thoughts.....as I listen to the Chili Peppers as I write

The new Mac. Looks good, smell goods and works great. OK. So what is the hoopla about. Well silly rabbits don't you know that the aluminum casing is so cool and keeps the aliens away. You all know that I think Steve Jobs is from another universe. The man is just to dang smart for us mortals to understand. (By the way you think Jobs is smart? You ought to speak with Larry Ellison about databases.... Man he will blow your mind). Anyway, the new Mac is pretty and cool. Go figure. Let's dig deeper.

The new Mac is beefed up with more processor power and the ability to handle more "video" content than before. Ya'll key in on the "video" word here. Why? You will see later.....The Mac is also coming with Numbers to keep up with Microsoft's Excel. Hell both of them are work well but I still love the Mac. Other then that well not much else to report except that beefed up processor power.

Pay attention big house analysts! Here is the skinny on why Apple did this to the new Mac. The new Mac will now be the hosting center for all the video applications that are in place. YouTube, Break.com, etc... What will happen is that these Mac's will be able to host and play thousands of video's and be the hosting center for those who have iPhones, Apple TV or other cool future release Apple R&D products. Wait what is a hosting center you ask.

Apple is building a mother ship to host and hold the future of technology. This is video. A iPhone, iPod, Apple TV etc just do not have the capacity to hold all the videos that will be the future of technology. When I say videos I also mean video email (analysts write this down) and video books. Think picture albums here. These applications will take a lot more horsepower to manage. Apple is setting themselves up for success with the new Mac. Oh did you see how Cisco is partnering with Apple on video technology? Gotta love this partnership.

So there you have it. Apple releases the new Mac and new software applications. Apple makes the basic Mac's more powerful and nobody even picks up on this. This is why the Apple investors read my blogs. Not to forget, let's chat about the iPhone before I go. Um, have you ever seen Youtube.com? If not go now! Have you ever seen video email? No, well get ready. Your iPhone will have it soon. Why is this cool? Can you imagine being able to watch a message to you and see the person and the body language vs. reading a text message? I can!

Apple needs to listen... This could get UGLY!

Before I start. Did you see the iTunes sales numbers? Over 3 billion downloads! Sweet music to my ears!

Well it is not looking good for the iPhone battery: "Apple should revamp those policies and set cheaper fees for the service", according to a letter sent to Apple CEO Steve Jobs by Mindy Bockstein, the chairperson of New York's Consumer Protection Board.

Apple did not return calls for comment. An AT&T spokesman referred all battery questions to Apple. AT&T is the sole mobile-phone service provider for the iPhone.

Damn, not even AT&t will take a call on the Apple iPhone battery issue.

Here is what I think will happen. Apple will comply with the States request (so far 2 States are coming after Apple. More will follow). Apple will allow you to take the iPhone into an authorized Apple battery replacement center (AT&T stores, Best Buy, Circuit City, Apple Store, etc...) where you can have the battery changed while you wait. This model is exactly how Omega and Rolex watches operate for battery replacement.

Here is the catch. Apple will also allow you to replace the battery on your own. But once you do this you void the iPhone and software warranty. Smart move on Apple. We should see this in place before the Winter starts. Hey at least you have options now.....

Does this hurt Apple? No way man! They will still get the revenue, extra foot traffic in their stores will cause impulse buying and Apple continues to make money. And our stock continues to climb.

As for the stupid news about the iPod, ignore it. God I hope they stop making that weak looking iPod and go to the slick screen iPod. This will be a good move for Apple. Apple can sell all the old style iPods to the folks in the mid-west....

Ignore the noise out there ya'll. Apple will kill their number as usual and we will be loving life!

On a parting note, this was a cute note I found from some poster:

The iPod's permanent battery has not generated many complaints because users are more willing to live without music than phone service, according to comments on several Apple blogs, and to the foundation's letter. Sure you wanna bet?

iPhone Battery and Apple's concern....

OK tonight I am in Tampa and went into the Apple store in the Tampa International Mall. First let me tell you the service is unreal, as always.

Anyway I went in to talk about how a user can use his/her iPhone when their company uses Exchange (Microsoft) for the email client server. To my great surprise you can set up the iPhone to work with your Exchange webmail client. Worst case you can forward your Exchange mail to you Google or other personal email account.

While I was talking with the Apple expert a crowd began to gather to watch us set up the iPhone. Ya'll there had to be 15 people standing around to watch. I glanced over the rest of the store and it was packed (on a Monday night). Needless to say, my theory on Apple attracting users of all ages in the store is spot on....

Now here is the good part. I asked the expert about the battery and he really did not want to talk about how the battery was replaced. I was testing him and asking him if the battery can be switched out and he said he was not sure and needed to check. After he came back to me with an answer he said Apple had options on how to replace the battery. I asked for them and he said he was not to sure. I could tell he was uncomfortable with the answer he gave me.

My concern is that Apple may be setting themselves up for a loss of business professionals using the phone. Why? I can't go a minute without my phone. From what I understand according to the Apple Pro's is that you will have to send in the iPhone for a week to have the battery replaced. But you can get a loner iPhone for $29.99. Sorry, what??? Apple you want me to send in my $600 dollar phone to replace the battery (for a cost of course) and pay for a loner. It ain't gonna work Mr. Jobs. Oh by the way this is for each year you have the iPhone.

Apple needs to reevaluate this practice for their business clients real quick. This could be revenue dent to them if they can't cater to the business client. But be sure, every dang kid who can talk Mom and Dad into an iPhone will have one! Jobs please build in a model for the business users of the iPhone.

As for the drop today in the Apple (APPL) stock, not to worry. Look for more upgrades this week. Hell the Money Mangers have no other place to place all that cash they have on the sidelines!

Current Market & Apple (APPL) Crystal Ball.

Well it is a rainy Saturday in Atlanta today. God knows we need the rain. Speaking of bad weather did you see the market last week? Nice correction, we hope. (Apple comments are at bottom of post).

Strange to see that the market is acting so "crazy". Company earnings have been very good, GDP was better then expected and cash is still on the sideline. Then there is this one concern of subprime lending and the effects subprime lending will have on the overall market.

As you know I am not a trained economist but I gotta believe that the banks and brokerage firms already baked these "losses" into their business plans years ago. I love how everyone is so surprised that subprime lending is backfiring and people are defaulting on their loans.

This gets me fired up to talk about credit in America. Why was is that our grandparents used to pray each night at dinner that "May we owe no man debt"? What the heck happened to being proud to have no debt and buy the things you can afford? Hang with me I do have a point.....

The way I see it is the banks and brokerage firms have baked these subprime losses right into their business plans. And I got to bet they made more money then they are losing. So everyone is in a panic mode that the subprime issues will kill our market. They will not. Actually I see this a good time to pick up many brokerage and bank stocks. I like GS, GHL,LEH & MS. I think these stocks are a steal right now.

As for Apple, wow a drop of $2.50 in a panic market. It was more troubling to watch Apple (APPL) be up with one hour left in the trading day and then POW, Apple drops $2.50. My thoughts are that people are taking profits. If you got in at $70 like I did it might be tempting to take those profits. I think this is a huge mistake. I see Apple going up another 30 points with ease.

Apple investors stay the fricking course! Look, they did not count ANY iPhone or AT&T subscription earnings on the last call. They plan to sell at least 1 million iPhones buy end of next quarter and that number will be blown away. Let's say more like 2 million plus phones. The iPod will not get eaten alive buy the iPhone for sometime to come. People will still continue to but the iPod as always. What I continue to stress is the iTunes revenue!!! Ya'll this is the secret sauce of Apple. The iTunes number continues to grow like a weed in the summer time. Pay attention to it.

Not to mention we have Apple T.V. taking off and new R&D products about to hit the market. Think Leopard here. Also, did you listen to the conference call this past week? Did you hear how Apple is not divulging their revenue numbers from their iPhone partners like YouTube, Google, etc..... Wanna bet it will be huge? I am betting on the huge side.

Apple back to school is in full force now and I think the marketing is pure genius! Think about it... Capturing the youth of America is outstanding. Which means more Apple adoption. Keep an eye on the Apple adoption rate by the big corporations too. Like Apple says the products just work. Try that statement with Vista..... Stay the course Apple investors..... Shorts are getting killed!

Apple (APPL) Hits! Analysts Go Nutt's and I am Happy!

Well, well, well. Seems our good friend Mr. Jobs continues to mystify and baffle us earthly mortals with his own other world knowledge and creativity. Apple announces yesterday and crushes the street estimates. (No real surprise here, these Apple analysts who called for an upgrade to the stock 3 days before earnings are real sharp cookies. Did you listen to the conference call? Listen to the "expert" from Merrill Lynch and GS and the real earth shattering questions they ask Apple management). God I can't wait to get a job offer from one of the big investment firms.

Anyway, I love how Apple did not count one red cent from the sale of the iPhones and activations from AT&T. I also kept getting the giggles when Apple management said they should sale at least 1 million iPhones in the first full quarter of iPhone sales. 1 million? To funny.... Wanna bet me Merrill Lynch that Apple kills this number? And do you wanna bet the subscription dollar numbers will be huge? I am stating now that Apple will kill that 1 million iPhone number (as long as Jobs has material) and subscription dollars will be 20% better then predicted by the analysts.

So what happens now with Apple? The Mac's are gaining market share like crazy! Go to an Apple store and you feel like your in another world. By the way one request to Jobs for the Apple store, how about providing us beer and wine while we play like kids on all your cool gadgets? I bet I would by more product will a slight buzz going. Ever get the idea that Apple copies a lot of what Sir Richard Branson has done with Virgin? Apple stores, web sites, products, people, etc... are all good looking, intelligent and sharp as heck. I love it.

The iPhone and iPod will continue to grow like a weed and continue to keep an eye on that little iTunes revenue number. That little number continues to grow and grow... Last, let's not ever forget the new release of Leopard coming out. Who the heck knows what this will do to Vista. This could be the death blow to Microsoft and their "younger target market". By the way has anyone heard a kid say I must have a Vista operating system recently? Or "daddy I must have a Zune!"?

My hats off to Jobs and his management team. I know for sure one day they will take off their human costumes and show us what they really look like and what planet or other world they are really from. Ever see that movie Cocoon?

AAPL Big Day Today.

Well yesterday was a wild ride for Apple. AT&T comes out and says they are not selling or better yet activating that many iPhones. To funny. Seems that AT&T also stated that the iPhone will be one of their best money makers?? Go figure. I love it when people talk out of both sides of their mouth.

So here is what I think will happen at earnings call today at 4:00 p.m. e.s.t. Look for Jobs to state the iPhone is a huge success. Jobs will talk about backorders for the iPhone. Look for Jobs to talk about the huge demand for the new Macs. Yes this will be a nice topic that Jobs will focus on. One thing to watch out for on the call is the iTunes revenue. This could be a huge surprise to all.

The chat boards are lit up today with Jobs announcing a stock split. I am starting to think this could happen. One good poster brought up how RIMM split and the effect it had on the RIMM stock. I am starting to think we could have a slight chance at a split. If this happens the price of Apple will hit the roof. Analysts are all coming out today stating the stock is going to make a run. This scares me some.

One thing to focus on today is what Jobs thinks will happen with the back to school and holiday season coming up. Will Apple have enough product to meet demand? This could be a surprise to all if Jobs thinks the backorders will grow. Look for good earning today with a run of the stock to the $150 range in after hours trading. Money managers have a ton on money to spend and I think we will see some huge buying late this afternoon.

Good luck!

AAPL (Apple). Analysts Freaking Out.....

OK, here is some comedy for our Monday. The analysts (guys and gals who have to make or hype everything to get clients to buy or sell stocks) are in major turmoil right now.

Six months ago analysts were calling for Apple's target price to be $98.00. Fast forward to today. Now they are calling for $130, $140, $200, $220 and even higher. Well let me be the first to say they have no clue where Apple is heading. Why? Their models are not able to factor in "I am a teenager and must have this product or I will cry for a month and drive Mom and Dad crazy". Or the "I gotta be on the cutting edge and have the best products". This latter comment is also known as the cool factor. So here are some comical bites for your Monday from our friends the Apple analysts:

After surging for the past several weeks, shares of iPhone maker Apple Inc. could experience some short-term volatility around the company's fiscal third quarter earnings report this Wednesday, warns one Wall Street analyst. From the Apple insider. Really? This is the best they can say?

"We believe buy-side investors have more or less figured over the past 18 months that Apple sell-side estimates tend to be overzealous and sometimes outright irrational," American Technology Research analyst Shaw Wu wrote in note to clients Monday. "Regardless, we advise investors to take advantage should Apple shares pull back on short-term concerns." Wu I will bet a paycheck that you have never gone to an Apple store or a local coffee shop.....

"For iPhone, we anticipate a small contribution as only two days of sales were likely recognized in the quarter coupled with Apple's use of subscription accounting," he wrote. "We are modeling a conservative 250,000 units though we would like to note that this is at a much faster rate than Apple's previous big hit iPod nano, which sold 59,000 units per day." What? I must be going crazy. Did they also say the iPod would be a flop?

Once again, the American Technology Research analyst is expecting Apple to model guidance conservatively for the current September quarter, likely citing its distributed iPhone accounting and the "lower margin" back-to-school season. Now I have read it all. Do you think Apple cares about lower margins with a waiting list for iPhones and the new Macs??????

"We are modeling $5.8 billion and $0.77 versus consensus of $6.05 billion and $0.83," he told clients. Wu reiterated his Buy rating on Apple shares with a $165 price target. Wu your model builder is broken and your going to miss..... Big surprise here..

Wu I guess you missed this announcement:

07.23.07, 11:31 AM ET AFX News Limited - FRANKFURT (Thomson Financial) - Apple Inc plans to sell its iPhone handheld device in Arcandor AG's Karstadt department stores from this autumn, Wirtschafts Woche reported, citing a spokesman for Karstadt.

Folks do me a favor, don't listen to the analysts community. Here is my "model" for Apple. Listen to Apples sales. Listen to Apples backlog and waiting list for products. Listen to the blogs. Listen to your iPod! This is what causes good earnings and stock prices to go up.

Apple Spilt?

Well there is a lot of talk of an Apple split coming on July 25th, 2007. I tend to think we will not see a split. Historically looking back at the Apple splits, one can see the split trend in line with what I call "market hype". What I mean here is that Apple tended to follow the other tech stocks when they took off (see this link for a full split review http://finance.google.com/finance?q=aapl).

Times have changed for Apple. Now Apple is the leader in the market for "cool gadgets" and slowly attracting the commercial IT market. Lot's of major corporations are accepting Apple technology as their IT platform. Who would have ever thought this could happen? Also, we can't forget how Apple has attracted the younger minds of the world and now these younger minds are making decisions on what technology is best for themselves, their family and the companies that they work for. Think Starbucks Coffee here.

Have you been in a Starbucks on the weekend yet? The average age of the clients is maybe 12 or 13 years old. Lifelong customers now for Starbucks.....Go into a Apple store sometime. The age of the Apple clients will shock you too....

Can you compare Apple to coffee or caffeine? Yep. iPod, iPhone, new Mac's, iTV and who knows what else Apple has in the R&D lab this month..... and iPen maybe? How cool would that be? A pen that can write, take pictures, allow you to listen to music.... Apple is addicting and socially cool. Do you know anyone who does not have an iPod? Next year I will ask you do you know anyone who does not have an iPhone.

Anyway, I really think Apple now controls the "cool gadget" space and will continue to dominate and shock the market for years to come with new technology and products. Why do they need to split? Money managers have plenty of cash on hand to buy this stock at $220 or more. Uh oh! I just let out my price target for Apple by the end of the year......

Money managers don't bet on a split. Bet long... I really feel sorry for the shorts this past couple of weeks on Apple. God those 140 calls must have hurt lot's of good people. Stay long on Apple!

By the way I am still waiting on those job offers from the big brokerage firms. Heck you all read my stuff weekly... Off to the park today! Have a great day.

Apple iPhone. I told you so!

I am now taking job offers from investment firms who want a person who can average about 26% per year. That is year over year. Feel free to contact me for any openings that you all have. For those that targeted the iPhone as a flop or estimated sales for only a few hundred thousand units, I am sure you have openings for me!

My estimate for the iPhone? 3.6 million units by end of summer. Only if they can make that many in time. You all are taking part in history. The iPhone will change the world!

Defense Contractors. Is now the time to buy?

Defense Contractors, we all know them, they make the big bad weapons and weapon systems that make the rest of the world fear our power and wrath. Is now the time to invest in this sector?

Well from my point of view I am saying yes. Why you ask? Well let's review what is going on with our Armed Services and the wide world of politics.

First it is pretty easy to see that our Armed Services do not have people lining up to join their favorite fighting team. To you none military that would be the Army, Navy, Marines, Air Force and Coast Guard. In fact this years recruits have the highest number of State court ordered "volunteers". These recruits are people that, well let's just say get into a little trouble with the local law enforcement agencies. Instead of sending them to jail we send them to the Armed Forces and then to a local conflict somewhere in this wonderful world we live in. Oh just a reminder to those who don't know but we are NOT in a war. Congress has not passed a declaration of war so stop saying we are in a war. We are not. It is a conflict.

Anyway, since our recruit strength is down we have to combat this shortage with technology. Examples would be developing superior air power (jets), sophisticated bombs and weapons. Now as you all know the military does not do this weapon manufacturing. Who does? Well it depends on who wins the coveted defense contracting bids. See it is all about this bid. There are many to bid winners to choose from. But to keep from naming every last manufacture who bids on these contracts I am only going to stick with the ones that I know and will continue to win government contracts.

Also, it is important to note that this newly elected Democratic House is going to do absolutely nothing to pull out our forces in Iraq. In fact we will have less forces in Iraq during the "surge" then we had at the beginning of this conflict. So you can bet your sweet pickles, defense spending will grow and your newly elected leaders, who swore they would pull the troops out of Iraq are going to do nothing. Bad news for the sheep who voted them in, good news for investors who want to make money in the stock market. God I love politics!

So here we go:

General Dynamics - GD
Lockheed Martin - LMT
Boeing - BA
United Technologies - UXT
Raytheon - RTN
Northrop Grumman - NOC

Now you may be saying these are the leaders. Well you are right. They also buy up any new competition so this leaves them at the top of the hill as industry leaders. I hope you enjoy looking at these organizations. Thank the stars above for our new leaders in office!

Happy Bombing and other crazy stuff only we can do!

The Apple iPhone Argument - AAPL

I have been having some discussions with friends on why I like Apple (APPL). I believe now is a great time to get in to Apple with some outstanding potential upside. For disclosure I bought my shares of Apple (APPL) at $90.02.

The argument that I have been making is that Apple only wants to target just 1% of the cell phone market. This is amazing. 1% of the billion plus cell phones in the world. Can Apple obtain this 1% of the cell phone market? Well I think so and Apple's product release history supports my argument.

Can you remember when the iPod came out. Market reaction was that the iPod was too expensive, downloads would cost too much, etc....Well I think Apple to date has now sold over 88,701,000 units! Last time I checked iPod's are a must have for almost all generations. Now imagine what is going to happen when the iPhone hits the market. More important you now have AT&T selling the phone to the masses with their powerful marketing arm. Is Google in the works for a unique partnership with the iPhone?

My argument is being supported by Apple's past performance with new go to market products. Include a loyal following of millions of Apple product users who have can't wait for new Apple products and you now have a recipe for instant product success!

My challenge to you is to prove me wrong.

Stock's to Own Now for 2007

Well it looks like the market is taking some profits now. This should be expected and I would venture to guess will see another big correction soon. Don't panic.

Some stocks that I am looking to purchase for my portfolio will be:

Apple - AAPL
AIG - AIG
Marsh & McLennan - MMC
General Dynamics - GD

Now there is a good reason to own AIG, MMC and GD. As long as we are in a state of "war" with the middle east these companies will prosper. I hope..... Just take a look at the technical indicators for them.

To help you all out I have found a great new financial site that is really easy to use and provides a ton of great information. The site is www.GoogleFinance.com. This has to be one of the best sites I have used in a long time. I hope you enjoy.

High Rate of Retun in Oversea's Markets.

I found this today while I was surfing the net. As I discussed earlier investing in the U.S. is not going to get you a solid rate of return. Just look at this rate of return for 2006 below:

Index:
China - +107.2%
Russia - +51.07%
India - +49.11%
Brazil - +39.50%
Mexico - +37.62%
Hong Kong - +34.5%
Germany - +32.59%
France - +30.95%
UK - +26.52%
USA - +13.86%

I like the overseas index's a lot. Until next week!