Hi Folks -
Sorry for the sabbatical. I had a lot of new events happen that took me away from investing. Getting married and honeymooning in Bora Bora is one of the events!
Anyway I am back with lot's of thoughts this month. First, let's look at the financial sector. With the Dodd Bill (http://www.politico.com/blogs/thecrypt/0908/Dodd_bill_much_more_aggressive_than_Treasury_plan.html), banks will be loving life. But it has to be the right banks. My call on this play is that banks like Citi, B of A, Wells Fargo and BB&T will do well. Why? The bill will protect these banks from financial losses in the consumer and commercial real estate market. Special legislation will protect this "institutes" from failure. After all without lending how do you expect jobs to be created? And we need jobs today (http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm).
Unemployment also makes me think about some of the consumer stocks that could be set up to take a beating. First, and I can't believe I am saying this but I see Apple taking a huge hit on the chin over the next few months. I am not sold on the apple iPad (http://www.apple.com/ipad/) at all. I believe that Apple is telegraphing to us that they are running out of great products to support the $223.00 stock price (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=aapl). I think now is the time to short Apple. Sorry Apple...
Another interesting play that I am fully invested in are the following stocks - McDonald's, Yum Brands!, Altria. WalMart, Exxon and Republic Services. Why these stocks you ask? McDonald's and Yum Brands!, good food cheap....Altria, stress of losing that job......WalMart, crappy products sold dirt cheap, Exxon, we still need gas for now and Republic Services, we in the USA no matter how many jobs we lose we still make more trash then any other country in the world.......I have all of these stocks as a strong buy.
I see the USA going through some trouble times. We lost over 9 million jobs and they will not be replaced.....Something has got to give....Good luck out there.
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